Sources for the video
Gold Drawdown Analysis: Where And When Gold Bottoms
Drawdown analysis is what fund companies do with bear markets. Take every past fall, measure how far it went, how long it took to hit bottom and how long it took to get back, and that tells you what normal looks like. Here it is for gold: every fall of 20% or more from a record since 1974, applied to January’s top. Change the falls that go in and every number on the page updates.
The answer in the video, from 1975 and 2008
Expected drawdown2008 fell 33.9% from its very top to its very bottom. 1975 fell 47.0% on the London fix, which is the only price there is for it.
34% to 47%
2008 and 1975
Bottom price$5,602.23 on 29 Jan 2026, minus each drop: $3,703 and $2,969.
$3,700 to $3,000
From January’s top of $5,602
Bottom around2008 hit bottom 7.3 months after its top, 1975 19.8 months after. Added to 29 Jan 2026, that is early Sep 2026 and late Sep 2027.
Sep 2026 to Sep 2027
The 2008 date has already passed
Back at a record2008 was back at a record 1.6 years after its top, 1975 3.6 years after.
Aug 2027 to Aug 2029
The video says summer 2027 to 2029
Where we are: gold’s very top was $5,602.23 on 29 Jan 2026. The low so far is $3,942.10 on 30 Jun 2026, 29.6% down. It closed at $4,194.65 on 9 Oct 2026.
The Averages
In the video I give the range from 1975 and 2008. Here are the averages, for those two and for all six falls, applied to January’s top the same way.
| 1975 and 2008average | All sixaverage | All sixmedian | The four quick onesaverage | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| How far it fell | 40.5% | 39.9% | 39.7% | 30.8% |
| Bottom price, from $5,602 | $3,336 | $3,369 | $3,378 | $3,874 |
| Top to bottom | 14 months | 4.7 years | 23 months | 13 months |
| Bottom around | Mar 2027 | Oct 2030 | Dec 2027 | Mar 2027 |
| Top back to a record | 2.6 years | 7.5 years | 3.2 years | 2.0 years |
| Back at a record around | Aug 2028 | Jul 2033 | Mar 2029 | Feb 2028 |
Very top to very bottom, as in the video. The average adds the falls up and divides; the median is the middle one. They agree on how far gold falls, about 40% either way, but not on timing: 1980 took 28 years to get back, which pulls the all-six average out to 7.5 years while the median is 3.2 years.The four quick ones are 1975, 1978, 2008 and 2020, the falls that were back at a record within about three and a half years. 1975, 1978 and 1980 have no intraday prices, so they use the London fix or closing prices. The tool below recalculates all of this for any set of falls and either measure.
Run It Yourself
It opens on the video’s inputs. Switch to all six falls, just the quick ones, just the slow ones, or only the falls that went deeper than today has so far, or tick any combination in the table at the bottom.
Which falls go in
How a fall is measured
From the highest price traded to the lowest, which is the drop a holder actually sat through. Today’s top on this measure is $5,602.23 on 29 Jan 2026. There are no intraday prices before 1992, so 1975, 1978 and 1980 use their closing figures in both views.
Using 1975 and 2008, the expected drawdown is 33.9% to 47.0%. From January’s top of $5,602, that puts the bottom between about $3,700 and $3,000, sometime between early Sep 2026 and late Sep 2027, with gold back at a record between Aug 2027 and Aug 2029.
The 2008 bottom date has already passed: today is 8 months after the top.
| Average | Median | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| How far it fell | 40.5% | 40.5% | 34–47% |
| Top to bottom | 14 months | 14 months | 7 months to 20 months |
| Bottom back to a record | 1.4 years | 1.4 years | 11 months to 1.9 years |
| Top back to a record | 2.6 years | 2.6 years | 1.6 years to 3.6 years |
| Average | Median | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bottom price | $3,336 | $3,336 | $2,969 to $3,703 |
| Bottom around | Mar 2027 | Mar 2027 | Sep 2026 to Sep 2027 |
| Back at a record around | Aug 2028 | Aug 2028 | Aug 2027 to Aug 2029 |
The average adds the falls up and divides. The median is the middle one, which a single extreme fall can’t drag around. With 1980 in the mix (28 years to get back) the two can be far apart.
What today would look like if it followed each one
Each thin line is one past fall, started from January’s top and scaled to it. The blue line is what gold has actually done. The circles are where each fall’s bottom lands.
This is history laid over today, not a forecast. No fall repeats exactly, and none of this is financial advice.
The drawdowns themselves
Every fall you picked, lined up from the day of its record, against today’s.
Weekly prices as a share of each fall’s own record. A line that leaves the top of the chart kept going.
Every fall, and where it lands from today’s top
Tick or untick a row to put it in or take it out of everything above.
| Fall | Record | Bottom | Fell | Top to bottom | Back at a record | Bottom from $5,602 | Record around | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TodayStill going | $5,602.23Jan 2026 | $3,942.10Jun 2026 | 29.6%so far | 5 monthsso far | Not yet | – | – | |
| 1975Quick · London fix | $195.25Dec 1974 | $103.50Aug 1976 | 47.0% | 20 months | 3.6 yearsJul 1978 | $2,969late Sep 2027 | Aug 2029 | |
| 1978Quick · closing prices | $242.75Oct 1978 | $193.40Nov 1978 | 20.3% | 1 month | 3 monthsFeb 1979 | $4,465late Feb 2026 | May 2026 | |
| 1980Slow · closing prices | $850.00Jan 1980 | $252.55Aug 1999 | 70.3% | 20 years | 28 yearsJan 2008 | $1,664early Sep 2045 | Jan 2054 | |
| 2008Quick | $1,032.70Mar 2008 | $682.41Oct 2008 | 33.9% | 7 months | 1.6 yearsOct 2009 | $3,703early Sep 2026 | Aug 2027 | |
| 2011Slow | $1,920.80Sep 2011 | $1,046.23Dec 2015 | 45.5% | 4.2 years | 8.9 yearsJul 2020 | $3,053late Apr 2030 | Dec 2034 | |
| 2020Quick | $2,074.98Aug 2020 | $1,614.64Sep 2022 | 22.2% | 26 months | 2.7 yearsMay 2023 | $4,359late Mar 2028 | Oct 2028 | |
| Averageof the 2 ticked | – | – | 40.5% | 14 months | 2.6 years | $3,336mid Mar 2027 | Aug 2028 | |
| Medianof the 2 ticked | – | – | 40.5% | 14 months | 2.6 years | $3,336mid Mar 2027 | Aug 2028 |
Struck-through dates have already passed. “Bottom from $5,602” is January’s top minus that fall’s drop, and the dates add that fall’s timing to 29 Jan 2026. 1975 is measured on the London fix and 1978 and 1980 on closing prices in both views, because there are no intraday prices before 1992.
How This Was Worked Out
- A record is the highest daily closing price so far. A fall starts at a record and runs to the lowest close before gold sets its next record, and counts if it is 20% or more. That gives six falls since 1974, plus today’s.
- “Very top to very bottom” uses the highest and lowest prices traded, which this data has from August 1992. That covers 2008, 2011, 2020 and today. 1978 and 1980 use closing prices in both views. The 1974 to 1978 fall uses the London PM fix throughout, because the daily data starts on 2 January 1975, three days after that top.
- Applying a fall to today: January’s top minus that fall’s drop gives the bottom price. That fall’s months to the bottom, and years back to a record, are added to the date of January’s top.
- Average or median. With six falls, one long wait moves the average a lot. Across all six, the average time back to a record is 7.5 years and the median is 3.2 years, because 1980 took 28 years.
- Lower the bar to 15% and the list is the same six. At 10%, 2 more appear: 12.7% from Oct 1979, back at a record in 2 months, and 12.6% from Dec 2009, back at a record in 5 months. Neither tells you anything about a fall that is already near 30%.
- The study starts at the December 1974 top, the day before Americans could legally own gold again. Between August 1971, when the US stopped swapping dollars for gold, and that top, there were two more falls of over 20% from a record: 29% in 1973, back at a record in 6 months, and 28% in 1974, back at a record in 7 months.
- Six falls is a small sample. It is every one there is.
Where Every Number Came From
- Gold, daily. XAU/USD spot, open, high, low and close, 2 Jan 1975 to 9 Oct 2026, from Financial Modeling Prep.Intraday highs and lows from August 1992.
- Gold, London fix. LBMA gold PM fix, 1968 to 2021, as FRED published it before the series was withdrawn in 2022 (archived copy).Used for the 1974 to 1978 fall and the falls before 1975.
Built 11 Oct 2026. Gold to the close on 9 Oct 2026.