Sources for the video
Steady Eddie, Clever Trevor, Panic Pete: 50 Years Of Gold, Tested
In the video, three people put $100 a month into gold from January 1975. Steady Eddie buys every month and never sells. Clever Trevor keeps his money in cash until gold dips. Panic Pete buys every month too, but sells everything when gold drops hard. Same money in, three different results. This is that test, opened up. It starts on the video’s settings, and you can change how each of them plays it to look for a better strategy than Eddie’s.
The result in the video: $100 a month, Jan 1975 to Sep 2026, $62,100 each
Steady Eddie$100 at the end of every month from Jan 1975 to Sep 2026, 621 months and $62,100 in all, at each month’s last closing price. That’s 9.4 times the money he put in.
$583,979
Bought every month, never sold
Clever TrevorSaved his $100 a month in cash, earning nothing, and bought with all of it whenever gold closed a month 15% or more below its highest month-end of the past year. That happened in 87 of the 621 months.
$517,688
11.4% less than Eddie
Panic PeteBought every month, but sold everything whenever gold closed 15% or more below where it was three months earlier, then put it all back in the following month. That happened 8 times: Sep 1975, Aug 1976, Apr 1980, Jan 1981, Jun 1981, Mar 1982, Oct 2008, Jun 2013.
$476,171
18.5% less than Eddie
Pete, every 10-year stretch42 ten-year stretches, from January 1975 to December 1984 through January 2016 to December 2025. Pete sold in 23 of them and finished behind Eddie in 23. In the other 19, gold never fell 15% in three months, so he never sold and finished level. Trevor finished behind Eddie in 31 of the 42.
23 of 23
Where he sold, he finished behind Eddie
Run It Yourself
Change the years, how each of them plays it, and whether cash waiting on the sidelines earns interest. Every number, chart and table below reruns as you go. The blue dots mark the video’s settings, and one button puts them all back.
Years
Money waiting in cash
Steady Eddie
Buys every month, whatever the price. Never sells.
How often he buys
Clever Trevor
Keeps his money in cash until gold closes a month 15% or more below its highest month-end of the past year, then buys with all of it.
How big a dip he waits for
Below the high of the past
Panic Pete
Buys every month, but sells everything when gold falls 15% or more in 3 months, then puts it all back in a month later.
How big a fall makes him sell
Over how long
When he gets back in
marks the setting used in the video.
Steady EddieMost
$583,979
9.4× the money put in
Put in $62,100 over 621 months
Clever Trevor
$517,688
−11.4% against Eddie
Bought in 87 of the 621 months
Panic Pete
$476,171
−18.5% against Eddie
Sold everything 8 times
From Jan 1975 to Sep 2026, Eddie ended with the most. Trevor finished 11.4% behind Eddie, and Pete finished 18.5% behind Eddie. Across the 42 stretches of 10 years since 1975, Pete finished behind Eddie in 23, level in 19 (he never sold in those) and ahead in 0. Trevor finished behind in 31 and ahead in 11.
The race, month by month
What each of them had, every month from Jan 1975 to Sep 2026: the gold they held at that month’s price, plus any cash waiting. The dotted line is the money they had put in.
Until Pete’s first sale, he and Eddie are the same person, so his dashed line sits on top of Eddie’s. In dollars the last 20 years dwarf everything before them. Switch to the log scale to see the early years.
Every 10-year stretch since 1975
The same test, restarted every January: 42 stretches of 10 years, the first from 1975 and the last ending in 2025. Each bar is how far that person finished ahead of Eddie (up) or behind him (down). A dot means level. Tap a bar to load that stretch into the race above.
Panic Pete against Eddiebehind in 23, level in 19, ahead in 0
Clever Trevor against Eddiebehind in 31, level in 0, ahead in 11
Every time Pete panicked
Pete sold everything 8 times between Jan 1975 to Sep 2026. He got back in at a lower price than he sold at 2 of those times, and at a higher price 6 times.
| Sold everything | Gold’s fall over the 3 months before | Sold at | Back in | Bought back at | Gold’s move while he was out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1975 | −15.0% | $141 | Oct 1975 | $143 | +1.2% |
| Aug 1976 | −17.1% | $104 | Sep 1976 | $116 | +11.5% |
| Apr 1980 | −20.7% | $518 | May 1980 | $536 | +3.4% |
| Jan 1981 | −19.5% | $507 | Feb 1981 | $489 | −3.5% |
| Jun 1981 | −17.1% | $426 | Jul 1981 | $406 | −4.7% |
| Mar 1982 | −19.5% | $320 | Apr 1982 | $361 | +12.9% |
| Oct 2008 | −20.7% | $725 | Nov 2008 | $818 | +12.9% |
| Jun 2013 | −22.7% | $1,234 | Jul 2013 | $1,325 | +7.4% |
Prices are month-end closes. When gold was higher by the time he got back in, his money bought back fewer ounces than he had sold.
Trevor’s long waits
Trevor bought in 87 of the 621 months between Jan 1975 to Sep 2026. His money sat in cash for 2 years or more 7 times:
| Last bought | Bought again | Waiting | Gold when he last bought | Gold’s highest while he waited |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1976 | Nov 1978 | 2 years 2 months | $116 | $243Oct 1978, 2.1× his last price |
| May 1985 | Sep 1988 | 3 years 4 months | $314 | $493Nov 1987, 1.6× his last price |
| Jun 1990 | Jul 1997 | 7 years 1 month | $352 | $408Sep 1990, 1.2× his last price |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 2008 | 10 years 2 months | $276 | $974Feb 2008, 3.5× his last price |
| Nov 2008 | Apr 2013 | 4 years 5 months | $818 | $1,826Aug 2011, 2.2× his last price |
| Dec 2015 | Oct 2022 | 6 years 10 months | $1,062 | $1,974Jul 2020, 1.9× his last price |
| Oct 2022 | Jun 2026 | 3 years 8 months | $1,633 | $5,279Feb 2026, 3.2× his last price |
Every setting at once
Each square is one setting, run from Jan 1975 to Sep 2026 against Eddie as he’s set now. The big number is how far it finished ahead of Eddie or behind him. Underneath is how many of the 42 stretches of 10 years it won outright. Tap a square to use it.
Panic Petegetting back in: a month later
| Over | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | |||||
| 3 months | |||||
| 6 months | |||||
| 1 year |
Clever Trevordip below the high of the past
| High of | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 months | ||||||
| 1 year | ||||||
| 2 years | ||||||
| All-time high |
This is a test on past prices with simple rules, not a forecast and not financial advice. No dealer premiums, storage or tax for anyone, which flatters every strategy that trades: Pete pays them every time he sells and buys back.
Why Some Versions Of Pete Beat Eddie
Give Pete a 12-month window and he can come out ahead. Selling whenever gold is 15% lower than it was a year earlier beats Eddie by 19% since 1975, and at 10% by 26%. That looks like the opposite of the video. It’s the same lesson from the other side.
- After a sharp fall, gold tended to bounce. The video’s Pete sells after a 15% drop in three months. By the time he got back in a month later, gold was higher 6 times out of 8, by 5.1% on average. That bounce is what panicking cost him.
- After a long slide, it tended to keep going. On a 12-month window the rule only fires once gold has been falling for a year. Since 1975, after gold was 15% lower than a year earlier, it fell again the next month 36 times out of 62, against 302 out of 620 for every month. So selling and buying back a month later usually picked up cheaper gold: 22 of that Pete’s 36 sales.
That’s a slow trend-following rule, not a panic. Of the 20 versions of Pete in the grid above, getting back in a month later, 15 sell at least once, and 12 of those finish behind Eddie since 1975.
How This Was Worked Out
- Prices are the last close of each month for gold in US dollars (XAU/USD spot). Everyone puts in $100 at that price at the end of every month, from January 1975, the first month Americans could legally own gold again.
- Steady Eddie buys $100 of gold every month and never sells. Set to every 3 months or once a year, his money waits in cash in between and he buys with all of it.
- Clever Trevor saves $100 a month. In any month when gold closes 15% or more below its highest month-end of the past 12 months (that month included), he buys with all the cash he has. “All-time high” uses every month-end back to February 1970.
- Panic Pete buys $100 of gold every month. In any month when gold closes 15% or more below its close three months earlier, he sells all of it at that close. The next month he puts everything back in, that month’s $100 included. That’s the video’s rule. The other choices keep him out until gold closes a month at or above the price he sold at, or for 6 or 12 months, with each month’s $100 waiting in cash.
- Waiting cash earns nothing, as in the video. With interest switched on, it earns the 3-month US Treasury bill rate, month by month.
- Nobody pays dealer premiums, storage or tax. Real costs would hurt Pete most, because he’s the one selling and buying back.
- The stretches start in January and end in December, from 1975 until the data runs out. For 10 years that’s 42 stretches, from 1975 to 1984 through 2016 to 2025. “Level” means within 0.1% of Eddie. In a stretch where Pete never sells, he is Eddie, to the cent.
- These are simple rules run on past prices. Real people don’t follow rules this neatly, and the next 50 years of gold won’t repeat the last.
Where Every Number Came From
- Gold. XAU/USD spot, daily, February 1970 to 30 Sep 2026, from Financial Modeling Prep, pulled 8 Oct 2026.The last close of each month is used. Before 1975 the data is month-end only.
- Interest on cash. 3-Month Treasury Bill Secondary Market Rate (TB3MS), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, monthly.Only used when interest is switched on.
Built 11 Oct 2026. Gold to the close on 30 Sep 2026, the video’s cut-off.